Expected value per franc (or euro) staked, using the official prize rules, the jackpot on offer and the number of tickets that jackpot typically attracts. A return above 100% is a positive-EV draw. Jackpots are prefilled from the last published results; change them before each draw.
Defaults are for a high-income Geneva resident. Wins up to the thresholds are tax-free; stakes are not deductible. A promotion credit (e.g. CHF 5 per CHF 25 = 20%) lowers the effective ticket price.
Chosen from all combinations: the least-shared lines that still include a birthday number (where the popularity model is measured), no runs of 3 consecutive numbers and no past winning lines. Every line has the same chance to be drawn as any other; these ones are shared by fewer players when they win. New picks every draw. Joker numbers can't be chosen.
Chances, expected result and the typical outcome for a playing plan. A positive expected value is an average over many lifetimes; what usually happens to one player is the "typical outcome" line.
Tax and promotion settings come from the Signal tab.
Each point is the ex-ante return of one ticket at the jackpot announced before that draw. The dashed line is breakeven. Points above it were positive-EV draws.
Frequency counts with a ±2σ band, chi-square goodness-of-fit tests, and a walk-forward backtest that bets on the 6 hottest, 6 coldest and 6 most overdue numbers before every draw.
z-scores beyond ±2 would suggest a pattern. A strategy has to beat chance by a large margin before it covers the 45–57% house edge.
p-values near 0 would flag a biased draw machine. Values between 0.05 and 1 are what a fair draw produces.
Shown for completeness. The backtest above shows "overdue" numbers are no more likely to appear.
You can't change your odds of winning, but you can change how many people you share with. Popularity is measured from real payouts: when popular numbers are drawn, more people win and each prize is smaller.
Play more than 6 (or 5) numbers in the fewest tickets that still guarantee a minimum match if enough of your numbers are drawn. Greedy covering algorithm; good, not always minimal.
Stefan Mandel's method, rebuilt with each game's official prize-pool rules. When you hold every ticket, the lower tiers mostly pay you back your own stake, and your stake also inflates the jackpot you win.
Exact probabilities from C(n,k) and the allocation tables in the official Swisslos rules. These replace the estimated prize values used in Phase 1.
Germany: EUR 2.00 per line plus a processing fee per ticket that differs by state lottery (not included). Prize fund 50% of stakes; 9% of it goes to the booster fund for future jackpots. Jackpot from EUR 10M, capped at EUR 120M; above the cap the jackpot share goes to 5+1. Lottery wins are tax-free in Germany.